lørdag 12. april 2025

China’s Xi hikes US tariffs, seeks to bolster relations with Southeast Asian nations

China’s president is heading on a three-nation tour of Southeast Asia after his government hiked tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, the latest strike in an intensifying trade war that has sunk stock markets and threatens to stunt the global economy. The increase to 125% from 84%, effective Saturday, matches the recent series of duties levied U.S. President Donald Trump levied on China. The White House has said U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods now total 145% when earlier levies that aimed to discourage fentanyl shipments are included.

“There are no winners in tariff or trade wars. China does not want a trade war, but it is not afraid of one either,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Friday. “If the U.S. truly wants to resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop applying maximum pressure and acting recklessly. Such tactics never work on China.”

Trump's tariffs are a huge blow to Vietnam's economic ambitions

US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs targeting most of the world are now in effect – and outside China, no other region has been hit as hard as South East Asia. Near the top of the list are Vietnam and Cambodia which have been hit by some of the highest tariffs: 46% and 49%. Further down are Thailand (36%), Indonesia (32%) and Malaysia (24%). The Philippines gets a tariff of 17%, and Singapore of 10%.

This is a huge blow for a region highly dependent on exports. Its widely admired economic development over the past three decades has largely been driven by its success in selling its products to the rest of the world, in particular to the US.

Exports to the US contribute around 30% of Vietnam's GDP, and 25% of Cambodia's. That growth story is now imperilled by the punitive measures being imposed in Washington. The longer-term impact of these tariffs, assuming they stay in place, will vary, but will certainly pose big challenges to the governments of Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia in particular.

Why Beijing is not backing down on tariffs

In response to why Beijing is not backing down to Donald Trump on tariffs, the answer is that it doesn't have to. China's leaders would say that they are not inclined to cave in to a bully – something its government has repeatedly labelled the Trump administration as – but it also has a capacity to do this way beyond any other country on Earth.

Before the tariff war kicked in, China did have a massive volume of sales to the US but, to put it into context, this only amounted to 2% of its GDP. That said, the Communist Party would clearly prefer not to be locked in a trade war with the US at a time when it has been struggling to fix its own considerable economic headaches, after years of a real estate crisis, overblown regional debt and persistent youth unemployment.

However, despite this, the government has told its people that it is in a strong position to resist the attacks from the US. It also knows its own tariffs are clearly going to hurt US exporters as well.

Why Trump is hitting China on trade - and what might happen next

Suddenly, Donald Trump's trade war is in much sharper focus. Rather than a fight on all fronts against the world, this now looks far more like a fight on familiar Trumpian territory: America v China.

The 90-day pause on the higher "retaliatory" tariffs levied on dozens of countries still leaves a universal across-the-board tariff of 10% in place. But China – which ships everything from iPhones to children's toys and accounts for around 14% of all US imports – has been singled out for much harsher treatment with an eye-watering rate of 125%. Trump said the increase was due to Beijing's readiness to retaliate with its own 84% levy on US goods, a move the president described as showing a "lack of respect".

But for a politician who first fought his way to the White House on the back of an anti-China message, there is much more to this than simple retaliation.

What would a US-China trade war do to the world economy? 18 hours ago

The US and China together account for such a large share of the global economy, around 43% this year according to the International Monetary Fund. If they were to engage in an all-out trade war that slowed their growth down, or even pushed them into recession, that would likely harm other countries' economies in the form of slower global growth. Global investment would also likely suffer.

There are other potential consequences. China is the world's biggest manufacturing nation and is producing far more than its population consumes domestically. It is already running an almost $1tn goods surplus – meaning it is exporting more goods to the rest of the world than it imports.