Tariffs like that would be a blow to China’s already unstable economy, which is suffering from high youth unemployment, a lengthy property slump and government debt. A 60% duty on Chinese imports could shave off 2.5 percentage points, or about half, of China’s projected economic growth, according to an analysis published earlier this year by UBS.
torsdag 7. november 2024
China is bracing for fresh tensions with Trump over trade, tech and Taiwan
The first time China faced Donald Trump in the White House, there was a trade war, a breach of protocol involving Taiwan’s former leader, and a president-to-president bromance that turned sour. As President-elect Trump prepares to start his second term in office, China is bracing for unpredictability in its ties with the United States and renewed tensions over trade, technology and Taiwan. Perhaps the biggest consequence for China — if Trump stays true to his campaign promises — is his threat to slap blanket 60% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S.
Tariffs like that would be a blow to China’s already unstable economy, which is suffering from high youth unemployment, a lengthy property slump and government debt. A 60% duty on Chinese imports could shave off 2.5 percentage points, or about half, of China’s projected economic growth, according to an analysis published earlier this year by UBS.
Tariffs like that would be a blow to China’s already unstable economy, which is suffering from high youth unemployment, a lengthy property slump and government debt. A 60% duty on Chinese imports could shave off 2.5 percentage points, or about half, of China’s projected economic growth, according to an analysis published earlier this year by UBS.
Trump Wins the 2024 US Presidential Election: Implications for China
Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, becoming the 47th president on Wednesday, November 6, 2024. According to AP News, Trump secured the presidency by winning Wisconsin, surpassing the 270 electoral votes required. As of 10:22 AM China Standard Time, he has amassed 295 electoral votes, representing 50.9 percent of the total. At this pivotal moment, we analyze the potential trajectory for U.S.-China relations in 2025, drawing on policies from Trump’s previous terms and his campaign to anticipate the strategies he may implement.
This article explores Trump’s China agenda and considers the possible impacts of his second term on business and trade interests.
This article explores Trump’s China agenda and considers the possible impacts of his second term on business and trade interests.
In South Asia, Expect Continuity From Washington
As the world reacts to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, expectations are high for significant changes in U.S. foreign policy. After all, Trump has a starkly different worldview from President Joe Biden—and most other past U.S. leaders.
In South Asia, however, we can expect considerable continuity from Washington. The U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy—which counts on bipartisan support—has become the core driver of U.S. policy in Asia more broadly. Biden never announced a formal South Asia strategy, while Trump’s first-term strategy mainly targeted India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy first emerged under Trump as great-power competition intensified. The Biden administration robustly embraced the approach, albeit with some modifications. It has been on display in the last four years through U.S. efforts to strengthen ties with most South Asian capitals and to counter China’s deepening footprint in the region.
In South Asia, however, we can expect considerable continuity from Washington. The U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy—which counts on bipartisan support—has become the core driver of U.S. policy in Asia more broadly. Biden never announced a formal South Asia strategy, while Trump’s first-term strategy mainly targeted India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy first emerged under Trump as great-power competition intensified. The Biden administration robustly embraced the approach, albeit with some modifications. It has been on display in the last four years through U.S. efforts to strengthen ties with most South Asian capitals and to counter China’s deepening footprint in the region.
What Trump's 2024 election win means for Asian companies
Donald Tump has been elected U.S. president, capping a remarkable comeback four years after he was voted out of the White House. Here is what companies in Asia have invested in the United States, what Trump has said about them and what potential U.S. business policy changes would mean for Asian companies.
Asia braces for disruption to alliances, trade after Trump’s victory
Asia is bracing for a second Donald Trump presidency that is poised to inject unpredictability into the region’s relations with the United States, from casting doubt on longstanding alliances to threatening to upend trillions of dollars in trade. During his first term as president from 2016 to 2020, Trump, who scored a decisive victory against Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s election, broke with many of the longstanding but unspoken rules of US foreign policy.
He launched a trade war with China in 2018 – at a time when many countries were still courting its favour – and engaged with two of Asia’s most diplomatically isolated leaders, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Taiwan’s then-President Tsai Ing-wen.
In his second term, Trump has promised to implement an even more aggressive version of his “America first” vision, including a protectionist economic agenda that would raise tariffs to levels not seen since the Great Depression of 1929-1939. “A second Trump term would move beyond the targeted tariffs of his first to a much broader target base, both within China and globally,” Steve Okun, founder and CEO of Singapore-based APAC Advisors, told Al Jazeera.
He launched a trade war with China in 2018 – at a time when many countries were still courting its favour – and engaged with two of Asia’s most diplomatically isolated leaders, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Taiwan’s then-President Tsai Ing-wen.
In his second term, Trump has promised to implement an even more aggressive version of his “America first” vision, including a protectionist economic agenda that would raise tariffs to levels not seen since the Great Depression of 1929-1939. “A second Trump term would move beyond the targeted tariffs of his first to a much broader target base, both within China and globally,” Steve Okun, founder and CEO of Singapore-based APAC Advisors, told Al Jazeera.
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