lørdag 11. april 2026

Japan’s unsustainable pacifist delusion

Japan’s pacifist constitution is often cited as a constraint on what the nation of 123 million and the world’s fourth-largest economy can and cannot do militarily.

The latest crisis in the Middle East has made that harder to ignore. As disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized US allies for doing too little to help secure one of the world’s most vital energy corridors.Japan, heavily dependent on Persian Gulf crude, has clear stakes in the outcome. Yet Tokyo has responded with caution, citing Article 9 of its constitution and the limits it imposes on military action.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has acknowledged the importance of securing the Strait of Hormuz but emphasized that legal constraints limit what Tokyo can do. It was almost customary. Japan would act if it could, but its constitution prevents it from doing so.

China’s Middle East billions still woefully reliant on US gunboats


China has staked roughly US$145 billion in investments and construction contracts across the Middle East, while Iranian oil alone accounts for 13–14% of its imports.

Yet Beijing maintains no permanent military presence in the volatile region, with its only overseas base in Djibouti, thousands of miles away. The result is a structural mismatch at the heart of Chinese foreign policy: economic ambitions that increasingly depend on a security architecture Beijing does not control.Following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas normally passes — was effectively shut down. Iran’s blockade reduced traffic by more than 90% from normal levels, stranding over 600 vessels, including hundreds of tankers, inside the Gulf.

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Hungary: Scandal, fear and hope ahead of vote

Peter Magyar is still only Hungary's opposition leader but he's already talking as though he was elected prime minister, listing the new government's top domestic and foreign policy priorities and saying he wants to reach out to those who don't vote for him.

Magyar, a 45-year-old lawyer and ex-diplomat who has been the face of the opposition in Hungary for the past two years, is not short of self-confidence. But during the course of this campaign and, above all, over the past few weeks, Magyar, who heads the center-right Tisza party, seems to have undergone a transformation — he acts as if he has already won Hungary's April 12 vote and is now overseeing the transfer of power.

Magyar's attitude reflects the mood of many in Hungary. Dissatisfaction with current Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his governance has been growing for some time.

HUNGARY: VIKTOR ORBÁN COULD ACTUALLY LOSE

Viktor orbán is the closest thing in Europe to a prime minister for life. He has served four consecutive terms since 2010, perpetuating his power with the ruthlessness of a royal. But ruthlessness may not guarantee him reelection. That became clear to me recently in Székesfehérvár, a small city in central Hungary where Orbán was born.

Székesfehérvár lacks Budapest’s grand boulevards and baroque extravagance, but the city is not without luster. Hungary’s first king, Stephen I, built a basilica in Székesfehérvár that served as the coronation site for later monarchs. Rain was lashing the city when I visited one evening last month. It was dark and cold. But close to 1,000 people had gathered in the town square, all of them waiting for Péter Magyar, a onetime Orbán loyalist who broke with the prime minister two years ago and is now trying to unseat him in elections on Sunday. Most polls have shown Magyar’s party, Tisza, with a comfortable lead over Orbán’s Fidesz Party. But it’s not a given that popular support will translate into a victory at the polls.

China’s state media turns to social media and AI to tell its story — and often mock the US

The messaging from China’s Communist government may once have been dogmatic and rigid — not anymore. Having largely tamed the internet at home with tight censorship, Beijing is now tapping the power of social media and artificial intelligence to tell its story — and often to skewer the U.S. and its president.

In a five-minute AI-generated animation modeled after classic martial arts movies, China’s state media frames out an allegory for the war in Iran. A white eagle in regal attire representing the U.S. unleashes an evil laugh before his army attacks a group of Persian cats draped in black cloaks standing in for Iranians, who vow to fight after losing their leader and close off a crucial trading route.

Is Hungarian Leader Viktor Orbán, an Icon of the Far Right, About to Be Ousted by Voters?


Voters will head to the polls on Sunday to cast their ballots in Hungary’s general election—the results of which will have profound implications for the country, the European Union, and beyond.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has led Hungary since 2010, but recent polling indicates that he is now at risk of losing power: most polls show that his ruling party, Fidesz, is trailing behind the opposition party, Tisza, by a significant margin.

Orbán, who has cast himself as a proponent of “illiberal democracy,” is an icon of the global far-right, and viewed by U.S. President Donald Trump as a MAGA ally—so much so that U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance joined Orbán in Budapest on Tuesday, in an effort to boost the Prime Minister’s flailing campaign just days before the general election. Vance said that Orbán was “wise and smart” and that his leadership “can provide a model to the Continent.”

US intelligence indicates China is preparing weapons shipment to Iran amid fragile ceasefire, sources say

US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments.

It would be a provocative move considering Beijing said it helped broker the fragile ceasefire agreement that paused the war between Iran and the US earlier this week. President Donald Trump is also set to visit China early next month for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The intelligence also underscores how Iran may be using the ceasefire as an opportunity to replenish certain weapons systems with the help of key foreign partners.

Two of the sources told CNN there are indications that Beijing is working to route the shipments through third countries to mask their true origin.

‘A Perfect Storm’: How AI Is Transforming the Global Scam Industry

For the past few years, it’s escaped no one that levels of Internet and telephone fraud have skyrocketed. One in four adults worldwide lost money to scams last year, according to the Global Anti-Scam Alliance NGO, while 13% encountered an attempted scam at least once a day. Globally, over $1 trillion is lost to online fraud annually in what the U.N. has dubbed a “scamdemic.”

The vast majority originates from Southeast Asia, where some 300,000 people from over 65 countries have been trafficked into fortified compounds predominantly in Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia. From these “scam prisons,” victims are forced to orchestrate romance-investment cons, crypto fraud, money laundering, and illegal gambling. In Cambodia alone, online fraud is estimated to generate $12.5 billion annually, or half the country’s formal GDP, according to a 2024 estimate by the U.S. Institute of Peace. It’s little wonder the war-ravaged nation of 18 million has earned a snide moniker: “Scambodia.”

fredag 10. april 2026

Torbjørn Færøvik: Hanami - Japan's Annual Enchantment

At a time when so much seems to be going wrong, it is reassuring to feel the arrival of spring. Not least in Japan, where the cherry blossoms are now in full bloom. Millions of Japanese have already taken part in the celebrations, and many more look forward to experiencing the annual enchantment known as hanami – “flower viewing.”

“The event is not merely a natural experience, but a way of contemplating existence,” says the cultural historian Haruo Shirane. “It reflects who we Japanese are – spontaneous, playful, and philosophical.”

The celebration begins, naturally, in the far south, where spring arrives first. On the islands of Okinawa, the cherry trees may bloom as early as January. The climate there is subtropical and mild, and the blossoms are often a deeper shade of pink than on the mainland. From Okinawa, the bloom spreads northward, and by late March it reaches cities such as Kyoto, Osaka, and Tokyo. The most famous place in Tokyo for cherry blossom viewing is undoubtedly Ueno Park, where thousands of trees form a pale pink canopy over the paths.

As the colorful climax approaches, competition for picnic spots becomes fierce. Many companies send employees out early in the morning to check the trees, the sun, and the shade. The best spots are quickly claimed with large blue tarps marked with messages: “Mitsubishi 6 p.m.,” “Nikon Sales Department 7 p.m.,” or “Subaru 6–10 p.m., please do not remove this sign!”

But the festivities do not end there. After Tokyo, the blossoms continue their journey northward, all the way to the island of Hokkaido. In the winter sports city of Sapporo, the celebration does not begin until late April or early May. The Japanese follow the weather forecasts closely, and for the most devoted, the weather becomes an obsession.

A hanami is, above all, a social gathering filled with smiles and laughter, and the food is almost as important as the blossoms themselves. It is not a single dish, but a universe of small delicacies carefully arranged in square boxes – grilled fish or chicken, eggs, boiled, fried, and pickled vegetables, and, of course, rice. Colorful rice dumplings on skewers are also part of the feast, as is pink rice cake filled with bean paste, wrapped in a salted cherry leaf. Everything is washed down with beer – or sake, though usually in more moderate quantities.

US isn’t losing soft power in SE Asia — it’s ceding it to China

Commentators increasingly warn that the United States is losing its soft power – and the data backs them up. The Brand Finance Global Soft Power Index 2026 ranked the US as the steepest decliner among the 193 countries surveyed, with China now less than 1.5 points behind.

Richard Stengel, undersecretary of state for public diplomacy in the Obama administration, recently likened Trump’s America to post-war Britain – an imperial hegemon shrinking into “Little America.” The analogy is vivid, though slightly misleading. And it risks obscuring a more consequential story playing out, at least in Southeast Asia.

The deal to reopen Hormuz is nowhere near done

Wednesday’s ceasefire announcement by President Donald Trump, linked to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, prompted immediate optimism shipping would quickly resume. It didn’t. The following morning, traffic remained minimal. A handful of vessels, largely linked to Iran, made the transit. But most of the ships waiting in the Gulf stayed put. Iran announced shortly afterwardsthat it would effectively close the strait because of Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.

The reality is the strait was never closed. Framing the issue as “open” or “closed” misses the point. Ships are not being physically blocked. They are being deterred.

Over recent weeks, Iran has demonstrated both the capability and intent to target commercial shipping. Attacks and credible threats against vessels have driven daily transits down from around 130 to just a handful. Until that risk changes, ships will not return in meaningful numbers.

So what can be done to turn this around?

China factory prices return to growth after 3 years, beating expectations on surging oil prices

China’s factory-gate prices rose for the first time in more than three years while consumer inflation moderated in March, amid a surge in oil prices as the Iran war upended global energy markets. The producer price index grew 0.5% from a year earlier, the first growth since September 2022, ending the longest deflationary streak in decades. For the first quarter, the PPI fell 0.6% year on year.

Consumer prices climbed 1% in March from a year earlier, missing economists’ forecast of 1.2% growth in a Reuters poll and slowing from a 1.3% rise in February, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, grew 1.1% in March from a year earlier.

Behind China’s ‘active efforts’ for an Iran ceasefire: Business trumps politics

China’s ties with countries such as Iran and Russia have raised expectations of a bigger diplomatic role, but Beijing remains focused on protecting its own domestic interests, including global exports.

That stance underpins Beijing’s circumspect acknowledgment of reports that it pushed Iran toward this week’s temporary ceasefire. A New York Times report cited three Iranian officials as saying China played a role, while AFP cited U.S. President Donald Trump.

China has made “active efforts” to end the conflict, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday, when asked by the press about the reports. She emphasized that Foreign Minister Wang Yi had made 26 phone calls to representatives of countries including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Germany and Iran since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28.

But Beijing stopped short of confirming direct mediation.

China’s Xi touts peace - and points to global conflicts - in rare meeting with Taiwan opposition leader

Chinese leader Xi Jinping invoked ongoing global conflicts and the need for peace during a landmark meeting with the leader of Taiwan’s opposition on Friday and reiterated Beijing’s opposition to the independence of the self-ruled island.

The visit to Beijing by Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT), was the first such meeting in a decade and comes weeks before US President Donald Trump is set to visit China for talks with Xi where Taiwan is expected to be high on the agenda.

“Today’s world is far from peaceful, and peace is all the more precious.” said Xi at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

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How Pakistan became an unlikely bridge between the United States and Iran

The streets of Islamabad have been emptied by a sudden two-day public holiday, declared to enforce a strict security lockdown in the Pakistani capital. Behind the barricades, diplomatic activity is operating at a fever pitch as the world holds its breath for this weekend’s make-or-break ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran.

Pakistan, a nation more frequently making international headlines for its heightened militancy and shaky economy, is hosting the first direct talks between Washington and Tehran, working to end a weeks-long war that has left thousands dead and sent shockwaves across the globe.

North Korea says its latest tests included missiles armed with cluster-bomb warheads

North Korea on Thursday said its testing spree this week involved various new weapons systems, including ballistic missiles armed with cluster-bomb warheads, as it pushes to expand nuclear-capable forces aimed at rival South Korea.

The report by North Korean state media came a day after South Korea’s military said it detected North Korea firing multiple missiles from an eastern coastal area in its second round of launches in two days. North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said the tests lasted three days starting Monday and also included demonstrations of anti-aircraft weapons, purported electromagnetic weapons systems and carbon-fiber bombs.

India news: Marco Rubio to visit India for trade talks

India and Qatar discussed the importance of putting an early end to the disruption in global energy supplies, said Indian petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri, as a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran takes hold. Puri is currently on a two-day visit to Qatar, the single largest supplier of liquified natural gas (LNG) and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) to India.

The minister met with Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs and the President and CEO of QatarEnergy, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi in Doha.

In a social media post on Friday, Puri wrote: "My friend H.E. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi has reaffirmed the State of Qatar’s commitment to remain a reliable energy supplier and looked forward to continuing and strengthening energy relations and cooperation with India."

China's Xi Jinping hosts Taiwan opposition leader in Beijing

Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT) met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, capping off her trip to China this week that she has called a "peace" mission to reduce tensions.

Considered a proponent of closer ties with Beijing, Cheng is the first KMT leader to visit China in a decade, amid tensions over Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), whose leadership Beijing doesn't recognize.

Beijing has framed Cheng's visit as a signal that there is political space in Taiwan for Chinese interests. Beijing considers Taiwan to be a breakaway Chinese province that should be "reunited" with the mainland. Xi has said that he prefers this be done diplomatically, but also frequently threatens the use of force.