Kinaforum

søndag 8. februar 2026

Economic nationalism giving rise to a zero-sum world

The world we inhabit today bears little resemblance to the one imagined by the architects of the global economy at the end of the 20th century. Back then, the dismantling of trade barriers was celebrated as a gateway to shared prosperity.

Today, new walls are rising, not of concrete, but of tariffs, subsidies and export bans. The grand narrative of seamless globalization now sounds increasingly like a relic from a bygone era.What we are witnessing is not a temporary disturbance, but a tectonic shift in economic governance, one powerful enough to alter the strategic orientation of nations worldwide.

What began as sharp, provocative tweets during Donald Trump’s first term in office is proving not to be a historical anomaly, but rather the ignition point of a deeper, long-simmering transformation. To single out Trump alone, however, would be intellectually dishonest. Beneath the rhetoric of “America First” lay a profound unease over China’s rise and its perceived manipulation of the international economic system.

Delhi High Court reaffirms passport right of Tibetan citizens of India

The Delhi High Court has on Feb 3 upheld its series of previous decisions since 2010, saying Tibetans born in India on or after Jan 26, 1950, and before Jul 1, 1987, are citizens by birth under the country’s citizenship law. Crucially, it has rejected the contention of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) that once registered as a “Tibetan Refugee” and issued with an identity Certificate (IC), such a Tibetan should be considered to have voluntarily renounced their Indian citizenship.

IC is the travel document issued by the government of India to Tibetans registered as foreigners. But it is not universally recognized by immigration authorities at international airports, with even those with visas issued on them being sometimes turned back.

The High Court has also rejected the MEA’s submission that it was “under process” to challenge a bunch of orders pertaining to “Tibetan Refugees”, where the Delhi HC had ruled in favour of them, declaring them as Indian nationals, dating back to 2010.

Takaichi’s ruling party on path to winning a majority in Japan’s lower house vote, exit polls say

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ‘s governing party is almost certain to win a single-party majority in a key parliamentary election Sunday, NHK public television and other major networks say, citing their exit polls.

NHK says Takaichi’s governing coalition led by her Liberal Democratic Party could also win more than two-thirds of the 465-seat lower house, the more powerful of the country’s two-chamber parliament. That’s a level that would allow the governing bloc to dominate house committee chairs to steer policy and budget bills.

NHK, citing results of early vote counts, said the LDP alone secured 244 seats, surpassing a majority at 233. The huge jump from the pre-election share may allow Takaichi to make progress on a right-wing agenda that aims to boost Japan’s economy and military capabilities as tensions grow with China and she tries to nurture ties with the United States.

he facts — and frictions — of the U.S.-India trade deal

“It’s easier said than done,” is a phrase I have now heard several times from different experts as we discussed the feasibility of the terms of the U.S.-India trade deal. Less than a week after the India-EU trade pact was finalized, U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday announced in a post on Truth Social that he had agreed a deal with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling him a “great friend.”

Trump said Washington would cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%, while New Delhi will lower duties on U.S. goods to zero, replace Russian oil with supply from U.S. and Venezuela, open sensitive markets such as agriculture and buy $500 billion worth of American goods.

Modi, in his response on X, expressed delight over the lowering of tariff of 18%, thanked Trump and extended support for his “efforts for [global] peace.”

Chinese solar stocks rally on reports Elon Musk’s Space X, Tesla staff visited suppliers

Shares of Chinese solar panel makers surged Wednesday after local media reported that staff linked to Elon Musk had recently visited several photovoltaic suppliers in China, sparking speculation that a high-profile customer could boost demand for advanced products.

The reports fueled talk of a potential business partnership and came days after Musk said he planned to build large-scale solar cell production capacity in the U.S. Shares of China-based JinkoSolar, one of the world’s largest panel producers, jumped as much as 20% in early trade, hitting their daily limit, according to LSEG data. Jolywood Suzhou Sunwatt, which makes photovoltaic auxiliary materials, also saw its shares jump 20%.

Kerry Brown: Xi’s military purge is not really about corruption

Zhang Youxia, a top military general and vice-chairman of the body in overall command of China’s military forces, was removed from office on January 23. His departure means all but one of the seven members of the central military commission (CMC), which is chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping, have lost their positions in the last three years.

Xi has an established record of purging senior officials. Back at the dawn of his tenure as head of the Chinese Communist Party in the early 2010s, there was a series of high-level fallings. Bo Xilai, a fellow Politburo member who was convicted on bribery and embezzlement charges, was perhaps the most commented on.

But even Zhou Yongkang, a former senior party leader, was taken in under corruption charges in 2013 and expelled from the party. The slogan used by party leadership at the time was that even tigers needed to be afraid, not just flies. There were no exceptions when it came to party loyalty – no one was exempt and no one was safe.

EU needs political adults, not feckless children, in Trump era

When Brussels convinced itself that regulation could substitute for power and values for capacity, leverage migrated elsewhere. Europe rendered its own vulnerabilities exploitable; Washington and Beijing simply did not hesitate to use them.

Sermons multiplied as factories vanished; dependence was a policy choice, defended in public, moralized at home, and institutionalized through repetition until it hardened into reflex.European leaders luxuriated in talk of principles, moral superiority, a manicured gardenthreatened by the jungle, normative power, ethical trade, the Brussels Effect and enlightened multilateralism, while neglecting the unglamorous work of building industrial capacity, hard infrastructure, technological depth and military endurance.

Energy, defense, technology, logistics, data, industrial inputs, digital platforms and capital markets were all flagged in advance. Europe refused to accept the cost while the cost still bought clout, choosing to delay until Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made the price punitive.

India is reportedly ‘ready’ to buy up to $80 billion in Boeing aircraft following trade deal with U.S.

New Delhi is ready to place orders worth up to $80 billion for Boeing planes, India’s commerce and industry minister, Piyush Goyal, reportedly said, signaling the country’s willingness to expand trade with the U.S. India’s demand for aircraft alone, with orders for Boeing “yet to be placed but ready,” is nearly $80 billion, Goyal said Thursday, adding that if engines and other spare parts are added, imports from U.S. will “cross $100 billion just [from] aircrafts.”

Families of passengers who died in the Air India plane crash in Ahmedabad in June of last year are suing Boeing, over the alleged role of defective dual switches in the disaster that saw 241 of the 242, the minister said, on board lose their lives.

U.S. and India unveil framework of interim trade deal, move closer to broad pact

The United States and India moved closer to a trade pact on Friday, releasing an interim framework that would lower tariffs, reshape energy ties and deepen economic cooperation as both countries seek to realign global supply chains.

The framework reaffirms a commitment to negotiations toward a broader bilateral trade agreement, the two governments said in a joint statement, while noting that further negotiations were needed to complete the pact. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump, in an executive order, removed the additional 25% tariff imposed on Indian goods for Russian oil purchases as New Delhi “committed to stop directly or indirectly importing” Russian oil.

However, U.S. officials will monitor and recommend reinstating the tariff if India resumes oil procurement from Russia, the order said, as Washington maintains pressure on India to restrict energy ties with Moscow.

China reveals its plan to challenge the US dollar for dominance. Could it ever work?

China is seizing an opportunity to challenge American dominance in global finance and exert greater international influence at the expense of the all-powerful US dollar.

Geopolitical uncertainty – driven in large part by President Donald Trump’s often chaotic economic policy – has gripped markets in recent weeks, with the dollar falling to four-year lows. Meanwhile, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, driving gold prices to record highs of more than $5,500 an ounce. That’s given China an opening to promote its own currency as a viable alternative.

Over the weekend, the flagship ideology journal of China’s Communist Party published remarks from President Xi Jinping that outlined plans to turn the renminbi into a global reserve currency. That’s the role the US dollar currently plays – the go-to currency for the vast majority of foreign transactions, making it one of the world’s safest investments.

US accuses China of secret nuclear test as Trump admin calls for broader nuclear weapons agreement

The United States on Friday accused China of carrying out a secret nuclear test in 2020 as the Trump administration calls for a broader nuclear weapons agreement including both China and Russia.

The allegation comes a day after the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia lapsed, leaving the world’s largest nuclear superpowers without limits on their arsenals for the first time in decades.

President Donald Trump and other top officials in his administration have made clear they will no longer abide by the limitations of the New START Treaty and instead have argued they need a new deal to address threats from Moscow and Beijing. And Trump last year called for the resumption of US nuclear weapons tests.

Japan’s first female prime minister counts on her popularity to help her party win Sunday’s election

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is leveraging her popularity to help her party win Sunday’s snap election as she pushes her right-wing agenda to boost her country’s economy and military capabilities in the face of growing tensions with China and an unpredictable Washington.

The ultraconservative Takaichi, who took office as Japan’s first female leader in October, has since enjoyed high ratings and support as her style and “work, work, work” mantra resonates with younger fans.

Latest polls indicate a landslide win in the lower house for Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party. The opposition, despite the formation of a new centrist alliance and the rising far-right, remains too splintered to be a real challenger.

Torbjørn Færøvik: Derfor smiler Narendra Modi så bredt

Indias statsminister Narendra Modi smiler bredere enn på lenge. Og hvorfor ikke?

I forrige uke signerte han en frihandelsavtale med EU, og tidligere i denne uken ble India og USA endelig enige om en handelsavtale. På toppen av det hele kom nyheten om at indisk økonomi i fjor vokste med 6,5 prosent. Det var langt bedre enn Kinas 4,8 prosent, for ikke å snakke om Japans beskjedne 1,1 prosent.

«Vi rykker fram år for år», sa Modi forleden. «Holder vi fram som vi stevner, vil India snart bli en av de tre største økonomiene i verden.»

I dag ligger landet på femteplass etter USA, Kina, Tyskland og Japan. Snart vil det passere Japan, og Tyskland er også innenfor rekkevidde i nær fremtid. Spørsmålet er ikke lenger om landet vokser, men hva slags stormakt det blir.

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fredag 6. februar 2026

How US Project Vault challenges China's rare-earth dominance

A flurry of announcements this week is reshaping efforts by the United States and the European Union to loosen China's grip on rare earth minerals, the building blocks of next-generation technology. US President Donald Trump on Monday unveiled Project Vault, a plan to build a US strategic stockpile of critical minerals, expand domestic rare-earth processing capacity and secure long‑term supply deals with manufacturers.

In another development, the EU on Tuesday set out plans for a rare-earth alliance with US to bolster its own resilience. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance gave a keynote speech to delegates from key mineral‑producing countries on Wednesday, seeking to secure a rare-earth trading bloc to challenge China.

Rare earths and other critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and copper are essential for electric vehicles, robotics, artificial intelligence, defense and renewable energy.

South Korea stunned by Trump's latest tariff hike

South Korea's government appeared to be blindsided last week as Donald Trump accused Seoul of "not living up" to a bilateral trade deal concluded in October, and announced a new 25% tariff on Korean imports.

The Asian nation has yet to ratify the US trade agreement in the National Assembly. The legal step, expected in late February or early March, was considered a formality as South Korea had signaled readiness to accept tariffs of 15% on a range of its most critical exports to the US, including cars and pharmaceuticals.

South Korea had also committed to investing $350 billion (nearly €297 billion) in the US in return for the 15% tariff rate. With Trump flipping the table yet again, analysts warn of a growing sense of discontent with the US in the allied country, which could motivate Seoul to forge closer trade and economic ties with other nations, including China.

How China Built Its Navy on Russia’s Cold War Technology

Operating the world's largest navy by hull count, China possesses combat vessels—including surface warships and submarines—acquired from Russia decades ago, that helped it build sea power capable of challenging the United States.

While Russian legacy systems remain a relevant part of the rapidly expanding Chinese fleet, Alex Luck, an Australia-based analyst who specializes in the People's Liberation Army Navy, told Newsweek they will likely disappear from PLAN service within the next decade or two, "depending on how long particular units remain in service."

China and Russia have formed what Russian President Vladimir Putin once called a partnership without limitations, with both sides providing support—diplomatically and militarily—to each other on issues such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and tensions across the Taiwan Strait, as they join hands in countering U.S.-led alliances in Europe and Asia.

As part of efforts to build a "world-class" military aimed at displacing the U.S. as the world's most powerful nation, China has undergone naval modernization—supported by a robust shipbuilding capacity—and fields a fleet of more than 370 ships and submarines, including three aircraft carriers, eight 10,000-ton-class destroyers and 60 submarines.

America’s New Mineral Alliance Has China in Its Sights

An alliance to reshape critical mineral supply chains dominated by China was launched Wednesday by the United States and representatives from more than 50 countries.

"Today the United States, together with our partners and allies, has set out to reshape the global market for critical minerals and rare earths," the State Department said in a press release following the event, hosted in Washington by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and other senior U.S. officials.

The initiative covers a range of strategic resources, including rare earth elements (REEs), a group of 17 minerals essential to technologies shaping the future, from artificial intelligence and robotics to missile guidance systems.

China accounts for roughly two-thirds of rare-earth output and about 90 percent of processing, a concentration viewed as a national security risk by the U.S. and its allies. Rare earths in particular have become a major foreign policy focus for President Donald Trump's administration, including in negotiations on a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.

Arms Race: China Issues ‘Vital’ Nuclear Weapons Warning to US

China urged the U.S. to quickly work with Russia on a solution to manage their nuclear arsenals now that the New START arms control treaty has expired. New START was the last remaining nuclear arms pact between Russia and the U.S. It expired on Thursday, removing any caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than a half-century. Its termination sets the stage for what many fear could be an unconstrained nuclear arms race.

"From China’s view, the expiration of ‍New START is truly regrettable," said Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday, in a statement shared on social media.

"The treaty is vital to global strategic stability, and there is widespread concern over the impact on the international nuclear arms control system and global nuclear order after the treaty expires."